Surfaces, Bowling Tools and Back-ups – The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost

Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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